Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Crises: Evidence from History and Administrative Data
Gabriel Jiménez; DMITRY KUVSHINOV; José‐Luis Peydró; Björn Richter · 2026 · The Journal of Finance
WASTE classifies this as Negative / Null Result Report · AI classification, approximate
The study found no significant effect — useful as a negative control or null benchmark for your own design.
Abstract
ABSTRACT We show that a U‐shaped monetary rate path increases banking crisis risk, via credit and asset price cycles, analyzing 17 countries over 150 years. Rate hikes (raw or instrumented) increase crisis risk, but only if preceded by prolonged cuts. These patterns are unique to banking crises, unlike noncrisis recessions. Regarding the mechanism, prolonged cuts raise the likelihood of large credit and asset price booms, consistent with higher credit supply and risk‐taking. Subsequent hikes strongly reduce credit and asset prices, and increase banks' realized credit risk, rather than interest
Abstract by Gabriel Jiménez; DMITRY KUVSHINOV; José‐Luis Peydró; Björn Richter, The Journal of Finance (2026) — licensed CC BY 4.0.
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Metadata source: OpenAlex · DOI 10.1111/jofi.70023